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Pick-up in US jobs may cause Fed to hike rates
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Data watch: A man cycling past the Department of Labour building in Washington. Underneath the steady unemployment rate, job losses are slowly climbing, but jobless claims don’t yet show mass layoffs building, according to analysts. — AFP
WASHINGTON: Jobs week lies ahead for the United States, which means a heavy slate of data ahead of the capstone monthly employment report from the Bureau of Labour Statistics on Friday.
Forecasters expect the report to show monthly job growth more than doubled in October, to 65,000, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%.
That would leave the US Federal Reserve on track for additional interest-rate increases in the months ahead to combat inflation.
Other labour-market data in the coming week could reinforce the stability theme.
A monthly report on job openings due tomorrow is expected to show listings ticked higher in September, and economists will also scrutinise numbers on layoffs and quitting.
Weekly jobless claims figures out Thursday, meanwhile, are seen remaining near the lowest levels in decades.
“Underneath the steady unemployment rate, job losses are slowly climbing, but jobless claims don’t yet show mass layoffs building.
“The underlying story is that a low-hire, low-fire labour market is losing momentum, but not breaking,” said Bloomberg Economics analysts Anna Wong, Andrew Sacher and Eliza Winger
Rounding out the US calendar are manufacturing figures today, which are expected to show factory activity was robust again in October, and trade data on Wednesday which will probably confirm artificial intelligence-related imports continued to push the trade deficit wider last month.
Then there’s a report on productivity on Thursday which forecasters expect to show a 2.6% boost in the third quarter (3Q), which would be the biggest in a year.
Turning north, Canada also reports jobs numbers on Friday.
Economists expect the unemployment rate to have remained roughly unchanged at 6.5% in October after Canada shed 68,300 jobs the previous month, pointing to a soft labour market.
Statistics Canada will also offer its first full-month assessment of how international trade has fared since talks between the United States and Canada collapsed.
A day earlier, Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne will release the federal government’s budget, aimed at stimulating economic growth amid the ongoing trade rupture with the United States.
The government is expected to spend its fiscal windfall from high oil prices on tax measures to encourage investment, as well as programmes aimed at improving affordability.
The government intentionally scheduled the budget, titled Masters of Our Destiny, for after the US midterm elections.
Elsewhere, possible rate hikes from the United Kingdom to Australia, a closely watched post-election central-bank decision in Brazil, Asian purchasing manager indexes, and inflation data from key economies around Europe will be among the highlights.
The first major piece of data is due later yesterday, when South Korea reports whether exports in October continued their high double-digit monthly growth.
Shipments in September hit a record, and while economists expect a slowdown from that number they still forecast the value to exceed US$110bil in October.
Today, purchasing manager indexes are due from several countries, showing whether the strong factory performance seen so far this year continued into October.
Central bank decisions will also be in focus in the coming week, with the Australian and Malaysian monetary authorities both setting rates.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) tomorrow is expected by most observers to hike again after inflation continued to get faster, while Malaysian policymakers are forecast to hold rates steady on Thursday.
However, given the recent run of surprise decisions in Asia, the outcome of every meeting looks live at this point.
Also on Thursday, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will release minutes from its September meeting, when it hiked rates, and RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser is due to speak.
On Saturday, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda will give a speech in Washington DC.
Monthly housing figures from Australia are due today, with a decline in prices expected to continue across the country, while trade numbers on Thursday will show whether rising fuel costs and demand for chips and servers for new data centres continued to drive import growth in September.
Hong Kong will announce 3Q gross domestic product tomorrow, followed by Indonesia on Thursday.
New Zealand on Wednesday is set to announce jobless and wages data for the 3Q, the final economic release before the national election on Saturday.
The Bank of England is likely to raise its key rate for the first time in more than three years on Thursday, in a decision featuring a new round of forecasts.
With the energy-driven inflation shock persisting and governor Andrew Bailey having warned recently that pressure to act is getting harder to resist, the move would align the United Kingdom with a tightening push across the Group of Seven.
Sweden’s Riksbank is also expected to act.
Officials may hike their rate on Wednesday by a quarter point, to 2%, as a strengthening economy and continued war-related disruption to energy supplies increase the risk of inflation exceeding target.
A reading of consumer prices comes out the following day.
Norway, with a benchmark already much higher at 4.5%, is anticipated to see no change.
With core inflation steady at 3%, investors may focus on any Norges Bank comments signalling a hike in December that would bring borrowing costs there to the highest since the 2008 financial crisis.
Turning to Eastern Europe, Poland’s Monetary Policy Council is anticipated to keep borrowing costs unchanged on Wednesday, but an escalating political spat that threatens to cripple the central bank may complicate the outlook.
In Prague on Thursday, meanwhile, a Czech Republic rate hike is on the cards.
In the eurozone, where European Central Bank (ECB) president Christine Lagarde just played down the danger of inflation spreading beyond energy, new data will signal if that’s still the case with the October reading of consumer prices on Wednesday.
The ECB’s wage tracker the following day may also draw attention, while the race to succeed Lagarde is likely to intensify now that she’s announced her plan to step down in February.
Multiple appearances by policymakers are also on the calendar, including at a major conference on Thursday.
Manufacturing data from some of the region’s biggest economies will also point to any momentum at the end of 3Q.
German factory orders come out on Thursday and industrial production on Friday, while numbers from France and Spain are due on those two days respectively.
Switzerland’s inflation release is scheduled for tomorrow, while Swiss National Bank president Martin Schlegel will speak two days later.
The same day, Turkiye will publish inflation data, which is seen to have slowed to 29.5% in October.
The central bank just lowered rates for the first time since January, to 36% from 37%, and said future cuts would be considered on a meeting-by-meeting basis.
The South African Reserve Bank will hold its annual Market Practitioners Group conference on Tuesday.
It will provide an update on the transition to the rand overnight index average, known as Zaronia, which replaces the Johannesburg interbank average rate at the end of this year.
Finally, Zambia’s Finance Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane delivers his 2027 budget to lawmakers on Friday.
Peru on Sunday posts October consumer prices data for the capital city of Lima, and the consensus expects the annual print to accelerate from September’s 4.55% reading.
The central bank has been on hold at 4.25% since September 2025, but if last month’s inflation readings come in near estimates, the BCRP may have little choice but to tighten at its Nov 12 meeting.
In Colombia, the central bank’s quarterly monetary policy report will likely mark down growth estimates in light of August’s massive 7.4-magnitude earthquake, and possibly push up consumer price estimates as well. — Bloomberg
Forecasters expect the report to show monthly job growth more than doubled in October, to 65,000, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%.
That would leave the US Federal Reserve on track for additional interest-rate increases in the months ahead to combat inflation.
Other labour-market data in the coming week could reinforce the stability theme.
A monthly report on job openings due tomorrow is expected to show listings ticked higher in September, and economists will also scrutinise numbers on layoffs and quitting.
Weekly jobless claims figures out Thursday, meanwhile, are seen remaining near the lowest levels in decades.
“Underneath the steady unemployment rate, job losses are slowly climbing, but jobless claims don’t yet show mass layoffs building.
“The underlying story is that a low-hire, low-fire labour market is losing momentum, but not breaking,” said Bloomberg Economics analysts Anna Wong, Andrew Sacher and Eliza Winger
Rounding out the US calendar are manufacturing figures today, which are expected to show factory activity was robust again in October, and trade data on Wednesday which will probably confirm artificial intelligence-related imports continued to push the trade deficit wider last month.
Then there’s a report on productivity on Thursday which forecasters expect to show a 2.6% boost in the third quarter (3Q), which would be the biggest in a year.
Turning north, Canada also reports jobs numbers on Friday.
Economists expect the unemployment rate to have remained roughly unchanged at 6.5% in October after Canada shed 68,300 jobs the previous month, pointing to a soft labour market.
Statistics Canada will also offer its first full-month assessment of how international trade has fared since talks between the United States and Canada collapsed.
A day earlier, Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne will release the federal government’s budget, aimed at stimulating economic growth amid the ongoing trade rupture with the United States.
The government is expected to spend its fiscal windfall from high oil prices on tax measures to encourage investment, as well as programmes aimed at improving affordability.
The government intentionally scheduled the budget, titled Masters of Our Destiny, for after the US midterm elections.
Elsewhere, possible rate hikes from the United Kingdom to Australia, a closely watched post-election central-bank decision in Brazil, Asian purchasing manager indexes, and inflation data from key economies around Europe will be among the highlights.
The first major piece of data is due later yesterday, when South Korea reports whether exports in October continued their high double-digit monthly growth.
Shipments in September hit a record, and while economists expect a slowdown from that number they still forecast the value to exceed US$110bil in October.
Today, purchasing manager indexes are due from several countries, showing whether the strong factory performance seen so far this year continued into October.
Central bank decisions will also be in focus in the coming week, with the Australian and Malaysian monetary authorities both setting rates.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) tomorrow is expected by most observers to hike again after inflation continued to get faster, while Malaysian policymakers are forecast to hold rates steady on Thursday.
However, given the recent run of surprise decisions in Asia, the outcome of every meeting looks live at this point.
Also on Thursday, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will release minutes from its September meeting, when it hiked rates, and RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser is due to speak.
On Saturday, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda will give a speech in Washington DC.
Monthly housing figures from Australia are due today, with a decline in prices expected to continue across the country, while trade numbers on Thursday will show whether rising fuel costs and demand for chips and servers for new data centres continued to drive import growth in September.
Hong Kong will announce 3Q gross domestic product tomorrow, followed by Indonesia on Thursday.
New Zealand on Wednesday is set to announce jobless and wages data for the 3Q, the final economic release before the national election on Saturday.
The Bank of England is likely to raise its key rate for the first time in more than three years on Thursday, in a decision featuring a new round of forecasts.
With the energy-driven inflation shock persisting and governor Andrew Bailey having warned recently that pressure to act is getting harder to resist, the move would align the United Kingdom with a tightening push across the Group of Seven.
Sweden’s Riksbank is also expected to act.
Officials may hike their rate on Wednesday by a quarter point, to 2%, as a strengthening economy and continued war-related disruption to energy supplies increase the risk of inflation exceeding target.
A reading of consumer prices comes out the following day.
Norway, with a benchmark already much higher at 4.5%, is anticipated to see no change.
With core inflation steady at 3%, investors may focus on any Norges Bank comments signalling a hike in December that would bring borrowing costs there to the highest since the 2008 financial crisis.
Turning to Eastern Europe, Poland’s Monetary Policy Council is anticipated to keep borrowing costs unchanged on Wednesday, but an escalating political spat that threatens to cripple the central bank may complicate the outlook.
In Prague on Thursday, meanwhile, a Czech Republic rate hike is on the cards.
In the eurozone, where European Central Bank (ECB) president Christine Lagarde just played down the danger of inflation spreading beyond energy, new data will signal if that’s still the case with the October reading of consumer prices on Wednesday.
The ECB’s wage tracker the following day may also draw attention, while the race to succeed Lagarde is likely to intensify now that she’s announced her plan to step down in February.
Multiple appearances by policymakers are also on the calendar, including at a major conference on Thursday.
Manufacturing data from some of the region’s biggest economies will also point to any momentum at the end of 3Q.
German factory orders come out on Thursday and industrial production on Friday, while numbers from France and Spain are due on those two days respectively.
Switzerland’s inflation release is scheduled for tomorrow, while Swiss National Bank president Martin Schlegel will speak two days later.
The same day, Turkiye will publish inflation data, which is seen to have slowed to 29.5% in October.
The central bank just lowered rates for the first time since January, to 36% from 37%, and said future cuts would be considered on a meeting-by-meeting basis.
The South African Reserve Bank will hold its annual Market Practitioners Group conference on Tuesday.
It will provide an update on the transition to the rand overnight index average, known as Zaronia, which replaces the Johannesburg interbank average rate at the end of this year.
Finally, Zambia’s Finance Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane delivers his 2027 budget to lawmakers on Friday.
Peru on Sunday posts October consumer prices data for the capital city of Lima, and the consensus expects the annual print to accelerate from September’s 4.55% reading.
The central bank has been on hold at 4.25% since September 2025, but if last month’s inflation readings come in near estimates, the BCRP may have little choice but to tighten at its Nov 12 meeting.
In Colombia, the central bank’s quarterly monetary policy report will likely mark down growth estimates in light of August’s massive 7.4-magnitude earthquake, and possibly push up consumer price estimates as well. — Bloomberg
Source: Pick-up in US jobs may cause Fed to hike rates (Monday, 02 Nov 2026) The Star. Retrieved from https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2026/11/02/pick-up-in-us-jobs-may-cause-fed-to-hike-rates
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